Jordan's Stunning Change:

The Shift in Hashemite Succession

Last August, The Estimate provided a Dossier entitled “Jordan at a Critical Crossroads: The Hashemite Succession” (The Estimate, August 14, 1998), concluding that Crown Prince Hassan was almost certainly going to be retained as heir to the Jordanian throne, despite rumors circulating at the time of King Hussein's travel to the US for cancer treatment that he might change the succession in favor of one of his own sons. Despite a great deal of gossip and speculation, the consensus of most Jordan-watchers then was that the issue was who would become Crown Prince after Hassan ascended the throne, and in fact that same month King Hussein told Radio Monte Carlo that any speculation he might replace Hassan was “out of line”. No longer.

Outside observers and apparently most Jordanians were  stunned by the seemingly  precipitate nature of the King's decision to replace Crown Prince Hassan with the King's eldest son, Prince 'Abdullah, and the King's sharp criticism of his brother's tenure as regent, though the King had signaled the imminent change for a few days. Barely had the celebration of the King's return after six months' absence ended, than the Crown Prince was replaced; before that news had fully sunk in, the King was returning to the US with a recurrence of his lymphoma.  Many wondered if the peremptory, almost cruel speed with which the change was made was motivated by Hussein's belief his own demise might be imminent, or in some other way a result of his illness and its treatment.

The Jordanian Constitution provides that normally the Crown passes to the King's eldest son, but also  provides that the King may choose one of his brothers if he chooses. Shifting from Hassan to 'Abdullah was, then, constitutionally sound: naming one of the younger sons, such as Prince Hamza, widely rumored to be the King's favorite, would have required a constitutional amendment. In the past, the fact that 'Abdullah's mother, Princess Muna, was British was seen as an impediment, but as the British Mandate era recedes into the past, that issue seems to have receded as well. (Hamza's mother, of course, is an American, though of Arab descent.)

But many Jordanians were reportedly startled by the speed and manner in which  Hassan was replaced after more than three decades as Crown Prince, and the open criticism the King gave of his handling of the job. There were plenty of rumors as well:    that Hassan's wife, Princess Sarvath, had already begun redecorating the Crown Prince's office as if the King were already dead; that the King became convinced, in his absence, that the Crown Prince was acting as if he were, in fact, the King, and not merely the Regent. Although there was talk that the King would name Hassan as a “Deputy” to the King, he did not do so before departing for the Mayo Clinic again. Some wondered how Hassan would react to his rather public dressing-down and “firing”. Many expected him to go abroad, though if the King's passing comes soon, he may feel obliged to remain and show support for 'Abdullah.

The general outline of the issues involved in the Hashemite succession were discussed in the Dossier cited earlier. This one looks at the immediate implications of the change, and the new Crown Prince, who also found himself as Regent within hours of his appointment.

F ormer Crown Prince Hassan is a familiar figure in the West as well as in Jordan: an Oxford graduate in Oriental studies, a man much involved in promoting business and investment in Jordan, with links to the peace process with Israel, and a longtime stand-in for his brother when the latter was traveling or indisposed. For 33 years Hassan loyally served as the heir apparent; this made the sudden nature of his replacement and the critical tone of King Hussein's dismissal letter particularly startling to many observers. There has never been any doubt that the two men are quite different in temperament and style, or that Hussein might someday wish to see his own sons succeed to the throne, but the fact that Hassan was essentially fired on the King's return made the event all the more stunning.

Last year, there had been a wave of rumors that the King was favoring one son or another: one longtime Jordan-watcher called it the “flavor of the week”. Hussein's eldest son, 'Abdullah (profiled below), won high praise for actions of his Special Forces; a unit was named for Prince 'Ali, son of the King by the late Queen 'Alia and thus a Palestinian as well as a Hashemite; and when the King sent a letter to his son Hamza, the eldest son by present Queen Noor and reportedly the King's favorite, he pointedly noted that when he was Hamza's age, he was King already. Hamza is currently at Sandhurst, where the King was studying when he succeeded to the throne, and there were many rumors that the Queen was promoting the idea of naming her son heir.

As noted earlier, the constitution specifies that the Crown goes to the King's eldest son, unless the King chooses one of his brothers. That meant, barring a constitutional amendment, 'Abdullah, born in 1962 to the King's second wife, the British-born Princess Muna (born Toni Gardiner). ('Abdullah was considered the heir from 1962 until Hassan's designation in 1965.) Eventually the King put the speculation to rest by frequently referring to Hassan as his Crown Prince and qurrat 'ayni, “the delight of my eye”. The gossip and speculation then shifted to whether the King would seek to have one of his sons named as Crown Prince on Hassan's succession, so that the line would return to Hussein's own. But once Hassan became King, he could easily change the designation of Crown Prince, and his own son, Prince Rashid, would be a natural choice. Rashid, born in 1979, is still young, but Hassan is still in his 50s, and it might be years before the succession issue would have come up again. It is widely believed, however, that Hussein always wanted to see the succession return to his own line after Hassan, and Rashid is said to have shown little interest in politics, though his mother, Princess Sarvath, is widely believed to harbor ambitions for him.

Then there are all the other calculations, produced by King Hussein's having sons by three of his four wives. 'Abdullah, the eldest and constitutionally first in line for the throne, had a British mother, though she was a convert to Islam. In the 1960s, when 'Abdullah was an infant, and colonial memories much more recent, that was more of an impediment than today. If an English mother disqualified 'Abdullah, however, it would also disqualify his brother Faisal, born in 1963. An Air Force officer, Faisal is considered highly competent, but not usually seen as a likely successor.

The King's third wife, Queen 'Alia gave birth to Prince 'Ali in 1975, and because 'Alia came from the important Nablus family, the Touqans, 'Ali was long seen as a possible successor, being equal parts Palestinian and Hashemite, a good symbol of modern Jordan. Hamza, born 1980, is the eldest son by the present Queen, Noor. (There is also a younger son, Hashem.) Hamza is said to be the King's favorite, and he spent much time with his parents during the King's long stay in the United States. Noor is an American, but of Arab-American ancestry, and a convert to Islam. Hamza, who will be 19 in March, may also remind the King of himself, who succeeded at age 17 while a cadet at Sandhurst, as Hamza is now.

When speculation was rife last year, Hussein moved to quell it, reasserting his support for Hassan. But signs of discontent began to be seen. Queen Noor in a television interview was ambivalent about the succession. From London before his return, the King referred to Hassan as his “deputy”, not as Regent or Crown Prince. On his return, he sent more clear signals. Rumors, leaks and “spin” spoke of such matters as Princess Sarvath's remodeling the palace, and the King's dissatisfaction with other matters.

The King's Letter to Hassan

The clearest signal of all was the actual dismissal. The  King's January 25 letter informing Hassan of his removal was quite long and, in the view of some observers, aired a bit of the Hashemite family's dirty linen in public. At times it was almost intemperate, denouncing “climbers” in Hassan's entourage who sought to “destroy Jordan”. Though the King began by praising Hassan's handling of his job for over 30 years “with diligence, enthusiasm and resolve that knows no fatigue or failure”, the praise soon turned to criticism. (The quotes which follow use the Jordan Times' English translation of the letter.) Noting that he had designated Hassan in the 1960s because the King's son was too young, and that in fact he had passed over the middle brother, Prince Muhammad, in order to name Hassan, the King also said that after his first cancer surgery in 1992, he had returned home “deciding to abdicate the throne in your favor despite the differences between us at time.” The very next sentence says that “my small family was offended by slandering and falsehoods, and I refer here to my wife and children”, and goes on to blame this on “those who pretend to be faithful to you”, that is, then-Crown Prince Hassan's retainers.

At this point the King warns against “climbers” who “climb onto the branch to ruin the relation between brothers and between father and son”, saying this is the objective of “every declared or hidden enemy”, whose “plan at this stage” is to “instigate infighting in the ranks of the leadership . . . and they find in my being alive an impediment to all their designs”. The King appears to be accusing persons around Hassan of wanting him dead, one of the strongest accusations in the whole letter.

Though praising Hassan's role in the peace process with Israel, the letter returns to recriminations: the King notes that he proposed the formation of a family council “to ensure the unity of the Hashemite family so that when the time came for you to choose your successor, the family would have a great role in naming the most suitable successor”. In short, Hussein wanted the family, not a future King Hassan, to decide on Hassan's successor, and says that “until that time” he was determined to keep Hassan as the Crown Prince.  However, the King claimed in his letter, Hassan was “completely opposed” to the family council idea, which the King said would include former Army Commander and Prime Minister Prince Zayd bin Shakir, among others.

The King then addresses criticism of his son Hamza, the eldest son by Noor, widely rumored to be Noor's candidate for the succession. Saying Hamza “has been envied since childhood because he was close to me” and interested in the family's history, praising Hamza's “integrity and magnanimity as he stayed beside me” during the King's illness, the King then moves on to praise Queen Noor. Often regarded as unpopular because of her American origin, the King praised her as “the Jordanian, who belongs to this country with every fiber of her being”, the “mother who devotes all her efforts to her family” who “hid her tears behind smiles”.

From this almost maudlin tone the letter shifts to a much more serious subject: “I have intervened from my sickbed to prevent meddling in the affairs of the Arab Army. This meddling seemed to be meant to settle scores, and included retiring efficient officers . . .” Among these, he says, was the Army Chief of Staff, Field Marshal 'Abd al-Hafiz al-Ka'abna, accused of corruption because of a house built for him, but, the King asserts, “I am the one who paid for the house”. He also criticizes the transfer of “efficient ambassadors without reason except the reason of age” and says that “That is why I returned to the homeland: To rectify matters as soon as possible and to assume my duties towards future generations.”

The tone of rebuke is quite clear; the complaint that the Regent was “meddling” with the Army (when the Regent had the King's powers delegated to him) suggests a serious disagreement with Hassan on this crucial issue.

The Future

A common reaction to the dismissal was to wonder why the King, long a master of political finesse, had done it in such a heavy-handed, precipitate way. Why not wait a while and replace Hassan, leaving him a fig leaf of personal dignity, instead of firing him almost the moment the King returned home? The King's sudden return to the US may hold the answer: perhaps the King feels he has very little time left, and was sufficiently concerned  about his loss of confidence in Hassan to act quickly. Others wonder if, given the tone and rambling style of the letter, the King's illness has affected his judgment.

Jordanians will no doubt accept 'Abdullah, but his experience is more limited than Hassan's, and he has little experience of politics or statecraft. The imminence of possible dramatic changes in the region (such as Palestinian declaration of independence) may also be considerations. Though no statesman, 'Abdullah has a Palestinian wife, and

Yasir 'Arafat was known not to get along with Hassan. All these factors, and those mentioned in the letter, and the influence of Noor (who is said to get along with neither Hassan nor Sarvath)  may have worked together to undermine the King's confidence in his brother. But with the King again out of the country, Jordanians wonder if they will have time to get used to 'Abdullah as Regent before getting used to him as King.

Jordan's New Crown Prince 'Abdullah bin al-Hussein

`Abdullah bin al-Hussein, who turns 37 this weekend, became both Crown Prince and Regent of Jordan  earlier this week, surely making for a memorable birthday. He is the eldest son of King Hussein, born on January 30, 1962 to the King's second wife, Princess Muna, the former Toni Avril Gardiner. Although the Jordanian Constitution provides that the Crown normally passes to the King's eldest son, the fact that 'Abdullah's mother was English (though a convert to Islam) was widely seen as an impediment in the tense period of the early 1960s, when there were still many challenges to the Hashemite throne. Although 'Abdullah was technically the heir presumptive under the constitution after his birth, in 1965 King Hussein named his brother Hassan as Crown Prince, providing a greater  sense of stability than a very young heir to the throne would have done.

'Abdullah spent much of his education and early career abroad; some in Jordan claim he speaks English better than Arabic. After initial primary school in Amman, he was sent to St. Edmund's school in Great Britain. His secondary schooling was at Deerfield Academy in the US. He entered the Royal Military Academy at Sandhurst, which his father also attended, in 1980; in 1981 he was commissioned as a second lieutenant in the Royal Hussars of the British Army, serving in Germany and the UK. He took a one-year program in International Politics at Oxford in 1983-84, and later another one-year program at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service, in 1987-88. Other professional training has included the Company Commander's Course at the US Army's Armor School at Fort Knox, Kentucky; an All Arms Tactics Course at the British School of Infantry and a course at Britain's Command and Staff College at Camberley.

In 1984 he was made a First Lieutenant in the Jordanian Army and became a platoon leader in the 40th Armored Brigade; the following year he was promoted Captain of a tank company in the 91st Brigade. In 1986 he served as a tactics instructor in the Jordanian Air Force's Helicopter anti-tank wing. In 1989 he was promoted to major and served as second in command of a tank battalion in the Second Guards Brigade. In 1991 he became a Lieutenant Colonel and the Armor Representative at the Office of the Inspector General; in 1992 he commanded the 2nd Armored Car Regiment in the 40th Brigade; and in 1993 he was promoted to full colonel. In 1994 he became a brigadier, and then Deputy Commander and finally Commander of the Special Forces. In 1996 the Special Forces and the Royal Guard were merged in a new Special Operations Command. 'Abdullah currently holds the rank of Major General. Last year he received considerable praise for a Special Forces Operation which captured gunmen who had carried out killings in Amman. He has always shown more interest in his military career than in politics, and many expect he would ultimately be named Chief of Staff, unless he succeeds to the throne sooner.

'Abdullah did not marry until he was past 30; like his father he enjoyed a reputation as something of a playboy. But in June of 1993, he married Rania Yassin, a Palestinian whose roots are in the West Bank city of Tulkarm, though she was largely raised in Kuwait. They have two children, a son Hussein, born June 28, 1994, and a daughter, Iman, born September 27, 1996.

'Abdullah shares many of his father's more adventuresome hobbies, including flying, scuba diving (he is a qualified military pilot and  frogman as well) and auto racing. He also collects antique weapons.

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