Bahrain/Algeria/Tunisia

The month of May is witnessing an unusual number of voting opportunities in the Arab world, but the three polls — Bahrain's municipality elections on May 9, Algeria's parliamentary elections on May 30, and a referendum on constitutional amendments in Tunisia on May 26 — are quite different from each other. The Bahrain vote, already taken (a runoff vote was due on May 16 for seats undecided in the first round), appeared to have been a success. Algeria's parliamentary elections are proving to be less promising, as both Islamist and Berber violence have been stepped up as the vote approaches. And Tunisia's constitutional referendum resembles more closely the traditional Arab approach to "voting": amendments permitting President Zine El ‘Abidine Ben ‘Ali to continue in office will be put to a referendum and will, with little real doubt, pass overwhelmingly.

In short, the three polls seem quite distinct but at the same time offer an informative cross-section of political approaches in the Arab world. The Bahraini vote offers genuine promise; the Algerian offers competitive parties and candidates but is being boycotted by key players who charge the vote is rigged; and the Tunisian referendum is a yes-or-no vote in which the results can be confidently predicted beforehand, once the pattern throughout the region.

Bahrain's Municipal Vote
The only one of the three votes which has already taken place was Bahrain's on May 9, and while the results of the first round are informative, the final results were dependent on the May 16 runoffs, results of which were due as this issue went to the printer.

The municipal elections were the first to be held since independence in 1971, though Bahrainis were first allowed to vote for municipal councils under British protection back in the 1920s, and were part of the reforms introduced by the Amir (now King) in February; parliamentary elections will be held on October 24. (For background, see the Dossier in The Estimate for February 22, 2002.)

There will be five municipal councils in the island Kingdom, each with 10 elected members and an appointed chairman. In the first round of the elections on May 9, 30 of the 50 members to be elected were chosen, while for 20 seats, no candidate won a majority of 50% and thus a runoff was held on May 16 between the two top candidates. The results of the runoff were not yet fully in as this issue went to press, so the analysis which follows is based on the 30 seats elected in the first round.

Although there had been some concern that the April rioting and attack on the US Embassy over Israeli policies might mar the elections, they apparently went off successfully, without any reports of violence or outbreaks of trouble. All the major political organizations agreed to participate in the municipal elections, though some are still threatening to boycott the October Parliamentary elections in disputes over apportionment. (See The Estimate for March 15 and April 5, 2002.)

In the May 9 polls, Bahrain reported that 51.3% of eligible voters turned out.

These were the first elections in which Bahraini women were eligible to vote and to stand as candidates. There were 31 women among 306 candidates in the first round of voting, but none won; the defeated candidates called for an investigation, claiming that some preachers used mosque pulpits to urge voters not to vote for women candidates. Some political figures suggested after the vote that it might be necessary to set up a quota system to assure that some women are elected, as is done in some other Middle Eastern countries.

Islamic groups did well in the 30 seats decided in the first round. The Islamic Wifaq movement led by Shi‘ite activist ‘Ali Salman won at least 12 seats in the first round, and two candidates affiliated with the Islamic Education Society also were elected. The majority of those elected were officially listed as independents. (For more on the nascent political parties in Bahrain, see The Estimate for March 15, 2002.)

The Tunisian Referendum
The Tunisian referendum will be the next poll in the Arab world, scheduled for May 26. Although the constitutional amendments being proposed include the creation of an upper house and other provisions, they most notably would permit President Zine El ‘Abidine Ben ‘Ali to run for another term when his current one expires in 2004.

When Ben ‘Ali moved against Habib Bourguiba in 1987, the octogenarian Bourguiba had long since proclaimed himself President for Life. After he was deposed for "senility", the constitution was amended to limit the President to three five-year terms (the provision actually says that he can be "re-elected twice") and to place an age limit of 70 on holding the post. That was 15 years ago. Today, Ben ‘Ali himself is 65 and approaching the end of his third term.

The proposed amendments would allow the President to be elected to an indefinite number of terms, and the upper age limit for election would be raised to 75. That would not only allow Ben ‘Ali to run again in 2004, but conceivably yet again in 2009, since the age limit refers to the age at election, not at completion of term.

The constitutional amendments have already been passed by Parliament, but it was decided to put them to a referendum (an unusual procedure for Tunisia though common enough elsewhere). They reportedly also include provisions for an upper house, what the government insists is a greater protection of human rights, and what critics are calling "judicial immunity for life" for the President after he leaves office.

Meanwhile, in the wake of the bomb attack on the Ghriba synagogue (See the April 19 issue), Tunisia has been taking pains to reassure foreign tourists and visitors that it is a safe place to visit. Following that attack, which killed a total of 18 (more died of wounds after The Estimate's initial report), led to the firing of the Interior Minister and the head of the Sureté.

The Algerian Parliamentary Elections
Meanwhile, the approach of the Algerian Parliamentary elections on May 30 has led to a resurgence of violence in the countryside, both from the Armed Islamic group (GIA) and from Berber groups resisting the government. There have been a number of attacks on government forces and clashes between the military and GIA rebels in recent weeks, as well as continuing confrontation in the Berber-speaking Kabylie by Berber activists demanding the removal of the National Gendarmerie from the Berber-speaking areas. Despite President ‘Abdelaziz Bouteflika's pledge to make Tamazight (the Berber language) an official language under the constitution, Berber activists are demanding the removal of the gendarmes, and the main Berber party is boycotting the May 30 elections.

A bombing occurred in the Kabylie town of Tazmalt near Bejaïa, when a bomb in a van went off near a crowded outdoor market, killing five and injuring 30. It was not clear whether this was an Islamist attack — the Berbers tend to strongly oppose political Islam and vice versa though both oppose the government — or perhaps an attempt to bomb a nearby Gendarmerie base.

In another incident, Gendarmerie forces engaged in a shootout in which two "terrorists" — a codeword usually meaning GIA — were killed on a university campus in Blida. Reports suggested that the militants were preparing an attack on university students, perhaps a massacre. The government believes GIA is trying to step up its violence in order to discredit the elections, which were originally intended by President Bouteflika as a sign that Algeria is returning to normalcy a decade after the deposition of President Chadli Benjedid and the outbreak of the troubles. Between stepped up GIA violence and the Berber boycott, he may not succeed.

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