The Estimate
Political and Security Intelligence Analysis of the Islamic World and its Neighbors
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Misunderstanding America

It is hardly original to note that Usama bin Ladin and those who think like him do not understand the United States and have some rather dangerous misconceptions about it. The defeat in Vietnam and the American withdrawals from Beirut and Somalia have led to a widespread assumption in some parts of the region The Estimate covers that Americans do not have the stomach for the long fight (though Vietnam was America's longest war). The reliance in recent years on casualty-free retaliations using cruise missiles and high-flying aircraft have also added to the impression that Americans fear casualties.

In 1990-91, Saddam Hussein made similar prejudgments, and lost a war, though he survived to tell about it. Others may have misread that result as well. The fact is that the United States has shown throughout its history a very different reaction to foreign wars it didn't understand than it has to attacks on its own people and territory. Americans remembered Pearl Harbor and fought the bloodiest war in the history of the world to avenge it. And before they remembered Pearl Harbor, they remembered the Maine, and they remembered the Alamo. It may be that the perpetrators of the attacks wanted a war with America, to destroy America. That is a mistake several others have made before, but there is little evidence it is likely to happen this time either.

 

 

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