The Estimate
Political and Security Intelligence Analysis of the Islamic World and its Neighbors
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Contents

 Page One

 Between the Lines

 Defense Briefs

 Listening Post
 Profiles
 Coffeehouse Gossip
 Forward Tracking

 Dossier

 

If , as the old saying goes, truth is the first casualty of war, wild rumors must be war's firstborn. The attacks on New York and Washington sent shock waves through the region as well as the rest of the world, and produced the predictable flurry of rumors. In a time of international tension and apparently imminent military action, "Coffeehouse Gossip" sees little reason to spread rumors which are unfounded or incendiary. It may be worth noting that certain rumors did follow certain, perhaps predictable, patterns however . . . There were those which sought alternative conspiracy explanations for who was behind the attacks, for example. There were indications that some in Israel, and perhaps in the Israeli intelligence services, were actively encouraging talk of possible Iraqi complicity or of Iraq being entirely behind the operation. Whatever the evidence, the Israeli sourcing raised the possibility of hidden agendas. A number of European and other reports quoting Israeli intelligence sources, for example, seemed aimed at implicating Iraq. Some also raised the issue of the behavior of some of the hijackers, who reportedly frequented strip clubs and bars, as suggesting they were not religious fundamentalists. (But why would someone with only political motivations commit suicide?) . . . On the other side of the fence, of course, there were those who tried to find a way to blame Israel. At the highest level, Ayatollah ‘Ali Khamene'i, the Iranian religious leader, said that there was evidence pointing to "Zionist" involvement in an attempt to emphasize that there was no proof of the involvement of "an individual Muslim", meaning Bin Ladin. At other levels were rumors in the Middle East that Israelis in New York had been warned in advance and had stayed away from the World Trade Center. (In fact, as many as 100 Israelis appear to have died in the attack, probably the third largest nationality among the casualties after US and British.) . . . Still another category of rumor were those which were either exculpatory or sought to portray certain events as a media plot. For example, Internet rumor had it that the pictures of Afghans and Palestinians dancing and celebrating were old film clips from the 1991 Persian Gulf War or other events (they were not); and there were reports claiming that Israeli film crews had given out candy to persuade Palestinian children to celebrate (no evidence presented) . . .

 

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