The Syria-Turkey Confrontation

Turkish Army’s New Chief is Hardliner on PKK; Iran and Arabs Allege Israeli Role But Israel Denies It

The suddenly heightened tensions between Syria and Turkey in the past week have added yet another potential flashpoint to a region already rife with threats and military buildups. Turkish maneuvers along the Syrian border, warnings that Syria must end its support for the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) and the explicit statement by Turkey’s new military commander, Gen. Hüseyin Kivrikoglu, that Turkey and Syria were in a “state of undeclared war” prompted efforts by Egyptian President Husni Mubarak and other regional leaders to defuse the situation.

Syrian-Turkish tensions are not new; there was a similar, if less intense, flurry of threats late last year and early this. (See “Turkey’s Growing Isolation” in The Estimate, January 16, 1998.) The reported presence of PKK camps in Lebanon and the continuing presence of PKK leader ‘Abdullah  Ocalan in Damascus exacerbate other and longstanding quarrels over Euphrates water and old territorial disputes. But there is also a perception that under General Kivrikoglu, the Turkish Army may be more intent on a military solution against the PKK. It regularly pushes into northern Iraq (and has just done so again), but Iraq is unable to respond. Syria is different.

Kivrikoglu took over as Chief of Staff in August, on the retirement of Gen. Ismail Hakki Karadayi. Kivrikoglu had previously been serving as Ground Forces Commander, and before that served as Commander in the disturbed Southeast;  he has considerable operational experience against the PKK and is considered a hardliner there. PKK leader ‘Abdullah Ocalan’s (See Profile ) recent (rejected) offer of  a ceasefire came at the time of Kivrikoglu’s appointment, but was quickly rejected by the Turks, who called on him to surrender instead.) Some in the Turkish media have speculated that Kivrikoglu might be less hard on the Islamist movement than his predecessor, but he has publicly pledged to continue the secularist campaign; similarly, though he paid a four-day visit to Israel not long ago, some have suggested he is less committed to the strategic alignment with Israel than was Karadayi. Ironically, though, it was the Israelis who were trying to disassociate themselves from the Turkish-Syrian confrontation, with both Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yitzhak Mordechai insisting that it was not their quarrel. Nonetheless, Iran and several Arab countries claimed that the Israeli-Turkish alliance was facilitating Turkish pressure on Syria.

Whether Turkey will actually stage some sort of cross-border raid into Syria (or perhaps an air strike against PKK camps in Lebanon’s Baqa‘a Valley) is another matter. Syria is far more capable of resisting than any force present in northern Iraq; and the fighting could spread. Surgical strikes against PKK camps might turn into an open battle with Syria, though it is unlikely that either side wants that.

Kivrikoglu assumed command at a time when the Turkish Army is riding high in its influence in Turkish politics, having ousted Necmettin Erbakan’s government last year and clearly able and willing to pressure that of Mesut Yilmaz on Islamist issues.  But many polls suggest that the new Fazilet (Virtue) Party, which replaced Erbakan’s Refah (Welfare) Party, now banned, stands to win a major share in the elections due by next April. The ex-Refah (now mostly Fazilet) deputies are still the largest single party bloc in Parliament, despite prosecutions of Refah mayors and widespread dismissals of Islamists from public jobs and the Army.

It is at least possible to speculate that with another political crisis possible after the next elections, the Turkish Army is determined to crush the PKK once and for all, challenging Syria and operating in northern Iraq as necessary. But there are other potential challenges: the issue of the missiles in Cyprus is still an explosive one, and while their delivery has been delayed efforts to get a deal to eliminate them completely have not yet succeeded. A sudden eruption on the Cyprus/Greece front — provoked by the missiles’ arrival, for instance — could make the threats against Syria moot.

Syria has insisted that it wants a diplomatic solution to the problem, while Turkish officials have said that they have received assurances in the past which have not been honored, and that they want to see actions, not words. They may be seeking to step up regional pressure on Syria over Ocalan and the PKK: President Süleyman Demirel said that “I am not just warning Syria, I am warning the world”, which might be an effort to promote third-party involvement. Later Turkey issued a “last warning” and reportedly canceled leaves in an Army corps along the border.

Meanwhile, there were press reports in Turkey of some 10,000 troops massed near the border, including armor, and of Turkish aircraft demonstrating along the border. The Turkish Armed Forces denied such a buildup, saying the only maneuvers going on were NATO-sanctioned and observed, and also denying Iraqi claims that it had sent 10,000 troops into northern Iraq. Turkish political figures sought to downplay the threats and emphasized that Turkey was running out of options and that Syria should crack down on the PKK, while the Turkish generals were more blunt about warning of the use of force.

Israel, in addition to its public statements that this was not its quarrel, according to some reports reduced planned maneuvers along the Syrian border in the Golan, in order to prevent these from being interpreted as a threat coordinated with the Turks.

The whole episode, however, is another demonstration of the degree to which Turkey is now isolated from most of its neighbors, except Israel. Although Egypt, a traditional friend, sought to play a mediation role, Turkish President Demirel put off receiving Egyptian President Mubarak by a day, pleading other business: a seeming snub, given the warm welcome Mubarak got in Damascus. Turkey’s quarrel with Damascus is of long standing, and goes beyond the PKK to the Euphrates water issue and Syria’s latent claim to the Hatay region. But in the past Turkey has had friends in the Arab world who had their own quarrels with Syria. Turkey has long since burned those bridges, through its Israeli alliance and other gestures, and now finds itself threatening Syria and potentially facing a conflict over Cyprus with only Israel as its friend in the region, and the attitudes of its NATO allies by no means automatically supportive.

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